The dreaded 'domino effect' of Brexit arrives : Norway also asks to renegotiate

• www.elconfidencial.com
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The dreaded domino effect of the  Brexit  has already arrived: the Norwegians warn that, if the United Kingdom is now able to negotiate  a special trade agreement  after the divorce, they  will also ask to review their relations with the European Union (EU). The Nordic intervention on the game board represents a new obstacle to the claims of the British Government to reach a free trade pact that goes  beyond the recently closed with Canada , where there are still important barriers to goods and services.

But above all, it is a touch of attention for Brussels, where the main fear is that an offer too generous for London could  feed other Eurosceptic movements . 

It is true that Norway is not part of the bloc and only accepts part of the Community regulations to have access to the single market. But a possible rebellion  could spread rapidly  to member states.

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In this sense, Leopold Traugott, of the Think Tank Open Europe, stresses that  the EU "will be very cautious"  when granting the United Kingdom "special concessions" during the new phase of negotiations of the Brexit, which officially begins next month. March. 

"A too good agreement could make  other partners, such as Norway or Canada , feel  betrayed, " he assured El Confidencial.

Currently, the Nordic country makes the block  greater financial contributions per capita  than the United Kingdom and accepts the free movement of people to have access to the largest market in the world. 

But  he has no voice or vote in decision-making, so he would not accept that London would now be given privileges.

The euro-skeptical party Center Party - which wants to get Norway out of the European Economic Area (EEA) to achieve a free trade agreement -  doubled its votes in last year's elections. 

Among the main major parties there is a general consensus in favor of belonging to the EEA. 

However, the youngest member of the current coalition government, Progreso, has already pushed for a renegotiation in the past and there is no doubt that if he sees favoritism he will return to the fray.

Theresa May during her recent cabinet change, on January 9, 2018. (Reuters)

No to the "back door" for now

"[The Norwegians] are  following this very closely, " a senior EU official told the British newspaper The Guardian. 

From Brussels they fear that, in the first instance, Oslo will become more demanding in future negotiations on a fisheries agreement once the United Kingdom withdraws from the Common Fisheries Policy and the three-party talks on access to the seasbegin  . The Norwegian Executive declined to comment on this.

In the EU, the hard bloc will be led by Germany and, above all France, which has faced those countries that, like Luxembourg, are considering the possibility of allowing British financial services a "back door" access to the common market . According to Traugott, "should the United Kingdom decide to leave the single market, which seems to be the current desire of the Government, it is likely that it will reach an agreement in the wake of the CETA (EU-Canada) and TTIP (EU-EE. UU.) ". 

"This would give London more regulatory freedom, but in return it would limit its access to the EU market . 

The exact nature of this dilemma - for example, to what extent the United Kingdom can continue to export financial services to the EU, and in what sectors the regulatory alignment will still be necessary - will be decided in the forthcoming negotiations, "he clarifies.

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In this sense, the expert warns that the different member states will be "tough negotiators  on different issues". 

"Each country has particular interests that it wants to safeguard. Some are more focused on economic ties, others on migration or defense cooperation, "he says.

Therefore, a difficult scenario is expected. 

Although the problems do not end there. 

In exchange for the two-year transition period that London has requested after the divorce, Brussels would be planning to  demand the free movement of people  - during this time - and the extension of the residence permit to all those EU citizens who move to the United Kingdom before the December 31, 2020. 

Although the Government of May has not yet given official dates, it is supposed to be limited to those who arrived in the country before March 29, 2017, when Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon was formally activated.