economic indicators that point to the collapse of Western civilization

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Throughout history, it is clear that every civilization has a beginning and an end ... also. These endings are almost always very turbulent periods, both economically and socially. But, however much some terrifies them think about the end of our system, or however much people may seem somewhat unlikely today, we can not fail to take into account the probability of occurrence, that someday will become true. Avoid touching the subject is not going to make less uncertain destiny (or our descendants), and so if you want it will delay it : rather the opposite. 

Without going into the realm of the soothsayer, we try to broach the subject with the greatest objectivity and rigor that such a question can (always alleged trademark).

For those who are tempted to stop reading now about potentially remote hypothesis

Since a server went to school, he was aware that Western civilization would collapse one day, but over the years that separate us have never found any studies or experts to address the issue academically. Therefore , the subject matter has been away in my mind, gathering dust on the shelf dusted only in those few occasions when the opportunity arises talk about interesting topics, but rigor is not necessarily a problem. The truth is that this approach has recently changed, since I read  this BBC article  that addresses the issue with minimal academic quality, despite the complexities get in this particular case.

Article masterfully opens with an introductory quote from economist Benjamin Friedman, comparing modern Western society with the balance of a bicycle whose wheels kept spinning through economic growth. If at some point it stops the movement that propels you forward, or the speed slows, the pillars supporting our society - democracy, individual freedoms, social tolerance, etc. - begin to crumble. Article adventure, if that fatal process began, our world an increasingly inhospitable place, which would end fighting for limited resources, and generating a social rejection of any outside individual to our immediate circle back. If not find the way back to put the wheels in motion and spin them again, we would end up facing a social collapse.


For those who at this point are tempted to stop reading this article, having already exceeded its tolerance threshold potential and hypothetical assumptions, let me make one last attempt you hold them reading. As noted in the previous article, and as a server thought from a young age , such collapses have occurred many times throughout history, and no civilization, much splendor that has achieved at its peak, is immune vulnerabilities that can kill a society. No matter how good it may seem that things are going at present, the situation can always change, and in fact sometimes it does even very sharply. The question that closes the introduction is that,

What indicators have to glimpse the proximity or remoteness of the end of Western civilization?

Given the fact the manifest impossibility of predicting the future, it is true that you can have more or less substantiated indicators that combine math, science and history, and to shed some light on this obtuse question. As explained by the BBC, the team's academic Safa Motesharrei a systems specialist at the University of Maryland, has been put to work (or rather the keyboard) to develop computer models that allow us a better understanding of the mechanisms lead or local sustainability and / or global, or collapse. According to research published in 2014, there are two main factors: strike ecological and economic stratification (a server rather call "socioeconomics stratification").

What is paradoxical is that, even though most live in society more than in nature, we are generally more aware of ecological risk, but in many cases we do not know see the socioeconomic risk that dwells among ourselves. You know how these lines ever since we have spoken of that inequality is a major cause of social instability, and become extreme it can be fatal for everyone, rich and not rich. Long since I had the issue of inequality in the ink of the articles I write them, and what better occasion than this to translate into meaningful words (I hope). Since the ecological factor has already been widely disseminated in other media, because we will focus on economic stratification factor that will pass that fits better with the theme salmon must follow these lines. we are more aware of the ecological risk overall, but in many cases we see the socioeconomic risk that dwells among ourselves. You know how these lines ever since we have spoken of that inequality is a major cause of social instability, and become extreme it can be fatal for everyone, rich and not rich. Long since I had the issue of inequality in the ink of the articles I write them, and what better occasion than this to translate into meaningful words (I hope). Since the ecological factor has already been widely disseminated in other media, because we will focus on economic stratification factor that will pass that fits better with the theme salmon must follow these lines. we are more aware of the ecological risk overall, but in many cases we see the socioeconomic risk that dwells among ourselves. You know how these lines ever since we have spoken of that inequality is a major cause of social instability, and become extreme it can be fatal for everyone, rich and not rich. Long since I had the issue of inequality in the ink of the articles I write them, and what better occasion than this to translate into meaningful words (I hope). Since the ecological factor has already been widely disseminated in other media, because we will focus on economic stratification factor that will pass that fits better with the theme salmon must follow these lines. but in many cases we do not know see the socioeconomic risk that dwells among ourselves. You know how these lines ever since we have spoken of that inequality is a major cause of social instability, and become extreme it can be fatal for everyone, rich and not rich. Long since I had the issue of inequality in the ink of the articles I write them, and what better occasion than this to translate into meaningful words (I hope). Since the ecological factor has already been widely disseminated in other media, because we will focus on economic stratification factor that will pass that fits better with the theme salmon must follow these lines. but in many cases we do not know see the socioeconomic risk that dwells among ourselves. You know how these lines ever since we have spoken of that inequality is a major cause of social instability, and become extreme it can be fatal for everyone, rich and not rich. Long since I had the issue of inequality in the ink of the articles I write them, and what better occasion than this to translate into meaningful words (I hope). Since the ecological factor has already been widely disseminated in other media, because we will focus on economic stratification factor that will pass that fits better with the theme salmon must follow these lines. You know how these lines ever since we have spoken of that inequality is a major cause of social instability, and become extreme it can be fatal for everyone, rich and not rich. Long since I had the issue of inequality in the ink of the articles I write them, and what better occasion than this to translate into meaningful words (I hope). Since the ecological factor has already been widely disseminated in other media, because we will focus on economic stratification factor that will pass that fits better with the theme salmon must follow these lines. You know how these lines ever since we have spoken of that inequality is a major cause of social instability, and become extreme it can be fatal for everyone, rich and not rich. Long since I had the issue of inequality in the ink of the articles I write them, and what better occasion than this to translate into meaningful words (I hope). Since the ecological factor has already been widely disseminated in other media, because we will focus on economic stratification factor that will pass that fits better with the theme salmon must follow these lines. Long since I had the issue of inequality in the ink of the articles I write them, and what better occasion than this to translate into meaningful words (I hope). Since the ecological factor has already been widely disseminated in other media, because we will focus on economic stratification factor that will pass that fits better with the theme salmon must follow these lines. Long since I had the issue of inequality in the ink of the articles I write them, and what better occasion than this to translate into meaningful words (I hope). Since the ecological factor has already been widely disseminated in other media, because we will focus on economic stratification factor that will pass that fits better with the theme salmon must follow these lines.

What point socio-economic indicators of this problem in the future?

Needless to say, against inequality, I am not at all advocating the adversarial model raking to force an equal standard that neither never exists or should exist. And it should not exist because it does not seem sustainable society in which not recognize who makes or has more merit, or simply working more (or better). If the effort is not rewarded somehow, at the end (almost) nobody just struggling.

Let 's assume for the premise that there must be some inequality that substantiates meritocracy, and to encourage you've citizens with an incentive to redouble their personal and professional efforts, reversing their efforts in progress and socio - economic progress for society as a whole Returning as the subject . With that, the key question is prowling hope that their minds should be: well, it is necessary for the proper functioning of certain doses and unequal system, but what level of inequality in particular we talking about? No I'm going to answer that difficult question, but the answer yourself go.

Apart from the sensitivity of the issue, given the great difficulty of weighing the level of inequality necessary and beneficial, rather than focusing on absolute terms, we are going to do in relative terms. To do this, we will be transported in time a few decades ago, at a time that is, oh coincidence !, significantly less uncertain and less unstable than the current (with due permission of the Cold War, but in reality we centrarmos social stability, remember). According to the annals of modern econometrics, in the 70s the difference between the pay of top executives and workers in the US was about twenty / thirty times. In 2012, the remuneration received by executives of companies in the S & P500 354 multiplied by the average of other workers.

With that information I think will be the subject crystal clear. We may not know define the threshold of inequality that marks a beneficial impact on the system as a whole, but what seems clear is that it is difficult for this is almost twenty times above where the wage gap stood at 70. The gap has become a chasm. This seems reasonable and objective state that currently the level of inequality reached in the West is excessive and therefore harmful to the system. Proof of this can be the existing social unrest in a few countries, but also inequality itself is almost more important the perception of inequality. Both of these clearly have increased dramatically in recent times. Actually, more than stratification, in some countries and we should speak rather even polarization.
It can also be very influential the intercompany inequality

And that we're talking about so far intrasocietaria inequality. If we turn the plane of the intercompany comparison, the picture is even more daunting. Already they have read many times what the statistics say, but it is fitting to quote here the data which provided the BBC that 10% of the world population with higher incomes are responsible for almost as many greenhouse gas emissions and remaining 90% . Not to mention that about 50% of the world population lives on less than three dollars a day.

This cocktail at intersocietario level not bode well, especially if he keeps emphasizing its strong trend. Simply must see that the neediest countries have fertility rates far higher than the western, and each time the asymmetry will be higher. Not correct the course will end in the unstable situation in some countries with many young people (more prone to radicalism and militancy average), in situations of great need, and look with desire for that rich West and most people in old age. Now you tell me whether or cocktail already cited before is not explosive.

I'll say goodbye now returning to the main theme of the article: the possibility of collapse of our socio - economic systems. A server already know tries to avoid at all costs into the sensationalist, despite the countless readers that the tabloid tone gives to other media. But they also know that my approach to the economy is evaluating opportunities ... and inevitably, with special emphasis also risks. I always tell them that the sustainability of the system depends on its ability to adapt to an ever changing reality, and risks are a key aspect in an anticipation that is key: apply warm cloths is always a remedy less effective and more expensive socioeconomically, to avoid the crisis (or at least palliate the most with foresight and planning). The best problem is not happens, also in economics.

Remember that while a country can achieve a certain level prior to the crisis, you can get to palliate them properly, and get socioeconomically progresses, even then no one is safe. Nothing can prevent in the country next door, an incorrect economic performance will lead them to collapse, and opt for the territorial expansionism as a way to cover their shame. A few days ago I posted the following on Twitter: "America first", "Nederlands eerste", "France première", "Türkiye ilk" ... Joé, I've never seen a race with goals in first position It can be reached palliate them properly, and get socioeconomically progresses, even then no one is safe. Nothing can prevent in the country next door, an incorrect economic performance will lead them to collapse, and opt for the territorial expansionism as a way to cover their shame. A few days ago I posted the following on Twitter: "America first", "Nederlands eerste", "France première", "Türkiye ilk" ... Joé, I've never seen a race with goals in first position It can be reached palliate them properly, and get socioeconomically progresses, even then no one is safe. Nothing can prevent in the country next door, an incorrect economic performance will lead them to collapse, and opt for the territorial expansionism as a way to cover their shame. A few days ago I posted the following on Twitter: "America first", "Nederlands eerste", "France première", "Türkiye ilk" ... Joé, I've never seen a race with goals in first position

And bear in mind that with so many participants who believe in the inalienable and inherent right to go head per se, rather than their performance and socioeconomic merits, at one end can leave frog and begin to "deliver" right and left : is a classic very useful resource, and effective, some not hesitate and do not hesitate to fly to cover fatal internal management, degenerating into social and economic disaster. Obviously not all rich people are equal, but some of them should begin to consider how to fight a little inequality, and I do not mean that contribute to some extent to build a more just world (which it does), but I say because in his mind, they should even contemplate even from a purely selfish view.

Source:  https://www.elblogsalmon.com/economia/indicadores-economicos-que-apuntan-al-colapso-de-la-civilizacion-occidental