First survey on the Catalan referendum: 64% participation and benefit for the 'yes'

Unlike 9-N, up to a third of supporters not now intend to vote. 42.3% census would vote "yes" to the question of referenda and 38.9% prefers the 'no'

DAVID MIRÓ

Barcelona 06/18/2017 | 2:042

main Gràfic de l'l'Enquesta on 1-O castellà

All stakeholders in the Catalan process agree on one point: the success of the referendum on October 1 announced by the Catalan government will depend, once its effective implementation, participation is ensured. Well, according to a survey by the  Institut Opinometre  made for daily ARA, the Catalans are shown mostly willing to participate in the referendum despite being well aware of the opposition of the Spanish government. Among those who say they will vote insurance (54.9%) and those who will possibly (9.3%) account for 64.2%, a percentage that is in the middle of participation in the Catalan elections. The first objective of the executive because -get one homologable- participation seems fulfilled.

grafic Anira to vote l'October 1 Castella

The second strong message from the survey is that respondents, both those who say they will vote as those who have failed to respond first to the question on Friday, June 9 issued by the President of the Generalitat, Carles Puigdemont "do you want that Catalonia is an independent state as a republic?" And here itself imposes no, although by a narrow margin of 3.4 percentage points: 42.3% say they would vote yes and 38.9% would favor no. A significant 6% decantaría by the white vote, 9.1% said that it has not yet decided and 3.1% did not answer.

grafic intenció vot per partit sympathy castella

If we cross the result of the two questions can draw several conclusions: the first is that, despite the continuous messages from the Spanish government in the sense that it will not fail to make the referendum, the vote on Oct. 1 is a very real possibility for a majority of voters who show a high willingness to participate and also have very clear sense of their vote. This is because the percentage of undecided has narrowed to stand in a range of 10%. Five years sovereignist process have delved in public opinion, which has had plenty of time to mature a decision.

How this expectation of participation 1-O and the victory itself explained the referendum question? The underlying reason is that the consensus of Catalan society in favor of resolving contentious Catalan through a referendum is very high. 58.3% strongly agree and 10.2 rather agree: total 68.5%. Instead, against only 26.5% pronounced.

ACORD grafic Castella referendum

Mobilization of the 'no'

But if we go down to detail should be noted a key difference with 9-N: This time there is a significant non-voters bag who wants to express their opinion: 34.7% of the anti-independence claim that Iran lets vote. With voter lists in hand, this means about 750,000 votes, a quantum leap compared to 100,000 9-N us. At this point, only half of voters does not ensure that will not go to vote in any case.

acord ref per castella POS-

acord ref per castella sympathy

By electorates, the more determined to participate are the voters of independence parties (ERC, PDECat and CUP, with percentages of 90%), but it is very significant that 56% of voters of PSC and 72% of CSQP show their willingness to participate in the referendum Puigdemont plans to call for 1-O. A not inconsiderable 18% of voters Citizens and 11% of PP which will also respond.

Anira vote per Castella simpatia

Anira per Castella POS-vote

The 'republic' in question

The other unknown what effect was a question that includes the republic concept: the results indicate an advantage for yes 3.4 points (above the margin of error for the survey): 42.3% vs. 38, 9%. This advantage is based on several factors, including the fidelity of the independence bloc, but also in the support of voters not explicitly favorable options the state itself (but maybe the republic), as common. 34.5% of those who feel sympathy for the common and 17% of the Socialists say they would vote in favor.

Another key is the preponderance of itself among younger and in towns of less than 10,000 inhabitants. In the range of between 18 and 34 years, the gap is 10 points in favor of independence. By contrast, it not imposed among women by 40.6% to 39%.

The result of the referendum

Does this data mean that the victory in the referendum would be adjusted? Far from it. The hypothesis that draws the survey is a massive voter turnout of itself and a division among the not so, if only we that say they will go to vote yes would rise to 67%, while that would not stay at 19%. The rest would vote blank or does not know, no answer.

This is the photograph to 105 days of the referendum. If nothing changes, the victory does seem assured. Only a massive participation could not balance things and leave the outcome open. But this does not seem to be, today, the strategy of the unionist parties or the government of Rajoy.

DATA SHEET

Universe
Population residing in Catalonia over 18 years

It shows 1,000 individuals. Stratified sample size municipality with cross-gender and age quotas

Methodology
CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interview)

Sample error
+/- 3.01%

Confidence level 95% (P = Q = 50%)

Realitzación survey 12, 13, 14 and 15 June

Fieldwork Institut Opinometre

ara.cat