07.07.2017 22:00 vilaweb
A participation of 67.5% in the referendum convened by the Generalitat on the first of October next. And a clear victory of yes to independence, with 62.4% of the votes, compared to 37.6% of votes against. This is the hypothesis that draws the second Barometer of the CEO of this year, which, in fact, shows the result that would be most feared by Spain, because with this result in hand, the Spanish government would be very difficult to prevent the proclamation Of independence
A participation of 67.5% of Catalans would give huge legitimacy to the referendum. Especially, taking into account that the option to participate is the majority among all the parties of the Catalan parliamentary arch, always according to the data of the CEO. In any case, a participation of this level would serve to challenge the action of the parties that try to avoid the call of the referendum.
In comparative terms, a participation of 67.5% is higher than that of all the referendums that have been made in democracy in Spain. It would be slightly higher than the Spanish constitution when it was referendum in 1978, far beyond that of the other two referendums of state scope, the permanence of NATO and that of the European Constitution.
Compared with the referendums on the statutes of autonomy of the various territories, it would also be better for them all: both Catalan referendums obtained 59% and 48% stakes.
And with regard to the elections, this participation would only be clearly exceeded by that of the 2015 elections, won by Together for Yes, when it voted 74.95% of the census. In 2012, the share was almost the same (67.7%, only two tenths higher). In the nine previous elections, it was clearly lower.
With these data in hand, the legitimacy of participation would be beyond doubt and would be indisputable, which generates a huge political problem in the state.
Even more, if combined with the expected victory of the yes. 62% against 37% is a very clear result that would not offer any doubt on an international scale about the will of the Catalans.
Thus, in comparison, in Scotland's 2014 referendum of independence he did not win by 55% to 44%. And in the previous referendum on self-determination made in Europe, that of Montenegro in 2006, the result was the same but vice versa: those who favored independence achieved 55% of the votes, against 44% of those who wanted Continue united to Serbia. The Brexit was also approved with 51% of votes in favor compared to 48%, with a 72% stake.
Compared with the referendums on the statutes of autonomy of the various territories, it would also be better for them all: both Catalan referendums obtained 59% and 48% stakes.
And with regard to the elections, this participation would only be clearly exceeded by that of the 2015 elections, won by Together for Yes, when it voted 74.95% of the census. In 2012, the share was almost the same (67.7%, only two tenths higher). In the nine previous elections, it was clearly lower.
With these data in hand, the legitimacy of participation would be beyond doubt and would be indisputable, which generates a huge political problem in the state.
Even more, if combined with the expected victory of the yes. 62% against 37% is a very clear result that would not offer any doubt on an international scale about the will of the Catalans.
Thus, in comparison, in Scotland's 2014 referendum of independence he did not win by 55% to 44%. And in the previous referendum on self-determination made in Europe, that of Montenegro in 2006, the result was the same but vice versa: those who favored independence achieved 55% of the votes, against 44% of those who wanted Continue united to Serbia. The Brexit was also approved with 51% of votes in favor compared to 48%, with a 72% stake.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario
No se admiten comentarios con datos personales como teléfonos, direcciones o publicidad encubierta