Political realignments in the Middle East

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The diplomatic crisis around Qatar has frozen several regional conflicts and concealed several attempts linked to other arrangements. No one knows when the curtain will rise, but what is certain is that when that happens we will see a profoundly transformed region.

1 Palestinian conflict

Since most of the Palestinians were expelled from their land -the May 15, 1948, in what today is designated as the Nakba- and Arab nations rejected that ethnic cleansing, all that was partially modified the distribution of the game was the Israeli-Egyptian peace separately agreed in Camp David accords (1978) and promise to solve the Palestinian issue by creating two states that emerged from the Oslo accords (1993).

However, when the existence of secret negotiations between Iran and the United States unveiled, Saudi Arabia and Israel decided to talk to each other. 

After 17 months of secret meetings, an agreement between the Custodian of the Two Mosques and the Jewish State [1] was concluded. 

This agreement was reached through the involvement of the Israeli army in the aggression against Yemen [2] and the delivery of atomic bombs at Israeli tactics kingdom of Saud [3].

Recall that agreement also provided for Saudi Arabia to evolve so that society remained Salafist and its institutions were to become secular. 

Also it stipulates the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan , where a referendum in September- and simultaneous exploitation of gas fields in the desert of Rub al-Khali (often designated as held  The Empty Quarter ) in territories of Saudi Arabia and Yemen - deposits that are the real reason for the current war against Yemen and the Ogaden region-which explains the withdrawal this week of the Qatari troops from the border with Djibouti.

Finally, Egypt gave Saudi Arabia the islands of Tiran and Sanafir, thus fulfilling the commitment it had made a year ago. 

By accepting the possession of these islands, Riad recognizes de facto the Camp David agreements, which provide for the free movement of Israeli ships in the surrounding waters. Israel even confirmed that it has received assurances from Saudi Arabia in this regard.

It is important to note that what led to Egypt to cede the islands was no pressure from Saudi Arabia Riad although both blocked oil deliveries to Cairo as a loan of 12,000 million dollars but the diplomatic crisis in the Gulf. 

Saud formalized his break with the Muslim Brotherhood, which was already advancing from Egyptian President al-Sissi were given a series of documents proving the existence of a draft coup in Saudi Arabia in which were involved several members of the brotherhood. 

At first, Saudi Arabia believed to be able to separate the  "good"  from  "bad" among members of the Muslim Brotherhood. 

The kingdom had already accused Qatar of providing support for the coup, but now things were peaceful. 

Currently, Riyadh intends to fight all the Muslim Brotherhood and that forced him to revise its position towards Syria.

The transfer of the islands of Tiran and Sanafir, Egyptian from the London Convention 1840, has no rationale to allow Saudi Arabia implicitly recognize -After 39 years agreements signed separate peace at Camp David between Egypt and Israel.

For its part, Tehran hosted the political leadership of Hamas, which is mainly composed of members of the Muslim Brotherhood, in the name of solidarity with the Palestinian cause and the fact that it shares with Hamas leaders the same conception of Islam politician.

The next step will be the establishment of public trade relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv, already mentioned in the edition of June 17, British newspaper The Times-several Israeli companies appear to have been allowed to operate in Saudi Arabia and the Israeli airline El-Al could use Saudi airspace [4] -, and then come the recognition of the peace initiative of Saudi Crown prince Abdullah, adopted by Arab League in 2002 and the establishment of diplomatic relations Walid ben Talal the prince would become ambassador of the kingdom in Israel [5].

That project could lead to peace in Palestine  (recognition of a Palestinian state and compensation for refugees),  in Lebanon  (Israeli withdrawal from the Shebaa Farms)  and Syria  (cessation of support for the jihadists and Israeli withdrawal from the Golan).

The issue of the Golan  must be particularly difficult since Netanyahu's government has reaffirmed -in are provocatively its annexation while the United States and Russia reacted strongly to the expulsion of Force UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) and replacement of its peacekeepers by Al-Qaeda jihadists [6]. Would not, however, impossible during the war in Syria, Washington and Moscow have committed to Tel Aviv to maintain the status quo in the Golan.

The draft general arrangement reflects the modus operandi of Donald Trump and Jared Kushner as businessmen: create an economic situation that imposes political change. And probably you find the opposition Muslim Brotherhood (Hamas) and political Islam triangle formed by Iran, Qatar and Turkey.

2. The conflict in territories of Iraq and Syria

All regional actors agree to consider that Iraq and Syria are currently one battlefield. 

But Westerners, who cling to the lies of the George Bush administration even child when admitted the absence of weapons of mass destruction that Saddam Hussein allegedly had romantic version and the " Arab Spring " even when they recognize that this movement never tried to promote freedom but, on the contrary, to impose political Islam obstinately consider two different scenarios.

At this point, I refer readers to my book Sous yeux us as to how this war started [7]. 

The fact is that,  since the beginning of the crisis around Qatar, the war in Iraq and Syria has been limited to

(1) the fight against the Islamic Emirate (Daesh) in Mosul and Raqqa, and  
(2) the fight against Turkey in Baachiqa and al-Bab [8].

What is clear to everyone in the region is that since the coming to power of Chinese President Xi Jinping to the proposed creation of two "Silk Roads", Washington has encouraged the creation of a "Sunnistán" in territories belonging to Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic. 

To that end, Washington financed, armed and led the forces of the Islamic Emirate to block the terrestrial communication axis Beirut-Damascus-Baghdad-Tehran-Beijing.

4 months ago, Trump administration negotiates studies and how that policy could change and replace by a partnership with Beijing the current situation of confrontation [9].

While on the ground are witnessing a real succession of contradictory events, the armies of Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic have advanced rapidly since the beginning of the crisis around Qatar. 

In his rapid progress towards the common border, both armies have been freed from the control of the Islamic Emirate its border areas and are now about to contact -with which would restore the Silk Road. 

And only separated at the point of confluence, about 200 meters of land illegally controlled by US forces [10].

As the fighting in southern Syria ... they have stopped unexpectedly. Damascus unilaterally proclaimed a ceasefire in Deraa. 

Actually, Moscow and Washington gave guarantees to Tel Aviv that Syria will only allow the Israeli border against the deployment of Russian forces, excluding the presence there of Iranian forces and the Lebanese Hezbollah.

In short, if the Pentagon follows the orders of the White House, a comprehensive cessation of conflict should occur. 

Only then would resolve the Turkish occupation of territory in Iraq and Syria, on the model of the Turkish occupation in Cyprus, a situation to which the European Union has been accommodated in a clear sign of cowardice. 

In the new situation, the United States and Saudi Arabia, so far enemies of Iraq and Syria, would become allies again.

3. The conflict in Yemen

Yemenis may leave the current exchange disadvantaged situation. 

Although it is quite evident that Saudi Arabia entered the war to install in Yemen favorable to joint exploitation of hydrocarbon deposits desert Rub al-Khali regime and to give Prince Mohamed ben Salman the possibility of "accumulating merit", the Iran has provided support to the Houthis and former President Saleh diverts the eyes of the Arab countries and so- called " international community " of the crimes committed there.

Indeed, everyone has to choose their side and almost all have chosen to side with Saudi Arabia against Qatar and the Turkish and Iranian allies tiny emirate. 

What could be positive for Palestine, Iraq and Syria is negative for Yemen.

Since June 5, 2017 and the severance of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the foreign ministries are preparing for a possible war, although only Germany has publicly mentioned the possibility. 

The situation is extremely surprising, especially if one considers that it is not Saudi Arabia but Qatar who holds observer status within NATO [11].

Meanwhile, resignations ads keep coming constantly Doha, ranging from Dana Shell Smith US Ambassador to the Uruguayan national team coach soccer Qatar, Jorge Fossati. And not only the countries that have sided with Saudi Arabia has cut its trade relations with Qatar. 

they have also, at the risk of war, many companies with no particular ties to the Gulf region, such as China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO), the largest shipping company in China and one of the largest in the world.

In any case, even if their claims-based on the story are really justified, seems clearly impossible Saudi Arabia attach Qatar, considering that earlier opposed the annexation of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein's Iraq, based exactly in the same historical reasons. 

A rule was imposed in the world since the time of British colonization: nobody has the right to modify the boundaries imposed London with one goal, which is precisely perennizar insoluble problems for states born of the independence processes.

In fact, so does London that these states remain dependent on its former colonial power. 

In the case that concerns us, the imminent arrival of 43 000 Pakistani and Turkish soldiers who would assume the defense of Qatar should strengthen its position. 

notes:

[1] Exclusive:  The secret plans of Israel and Saudi Arabia, by Thierry Meyssan,  Voltaire Network, June 22, 2015.  
[2] The "Arab" common defense, by Thierry Meyssan, Voltaire Network, 20 April Force 2015.  
[3] The Middle East is nuclearized !, by Thierry Meyssan, Voltaire Network, March 7, 2016.  
[4] Saudi Trade Talks with Israel are historic first, Michael Binyon and Gregg Carlstrom, The Times, 17 June 2017.  
[5] Exclusive: Saudi Arabia build an embassy in Israel, Voltaire Network, 30 May 2016.  
[6] the Security Council UN is preparing to demand that Israel break with al-Qaeda, by Thierry Meyssan , Voltaire Network, July 3, 2016.  
[7] Sous Yeux us. Du 11 Septembre Donald Trump, Demi-Lune Éditions, 2017.