Corruption fight threatens fragile Spanish peace

The centrist alliance that gave Mariano Rajoy another term is on the rocks, with the PM accused of breaking promises to tackle graft.

By DIEGO TORRES

3/10/17

MADRID — Four relatively quiet months into Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s second term and the peace in Spanish politics has been shattered by a row over the conservative leader’s least favorite topic: corruption.

The prime minister was the subject of verbal shellacking Wednesday from his closest ally in parliament, Albert Rivera of the centrist Ciudadanos, who demanded the resignation of the conservative president of the southeastern region of Murcia, under formal investigation since last month for alleged irregularities in the bidding and construction of a local auditorium. Rivera also slammed Rajoy for failing to follow through on a promise to set up a commission to investigate the financing of his center-right Popular Party.

Rajoy is in power thanks, in part, to Rivera’s backing (and to the Socialists deciding to drop their opposition to a PP government). After two elections in which the PP won but fell well short of a majority, a third vote was on the cards for Christmas Day 2016. Ten months of political deadlock ended in part because Rivera offered Rajoy his support, on condition that he agree to a 150-point reform agenda.

So Rajoy governs, but with the smallest parliamentary backing in the history of Spain’s democracy.

Now Rivera says Rajoy is refusing to implement the anti-corruption measures that he promised.

PP and Ciudadanos are partners but also competitors fighting over the same voters.

“Everything goes well until we say the word ‘corruption,’” Rivera told Rajoy in the parliamentary chamber, after accusing the prime minister of not keeping his word.

“You have no longer an absolute majority … so the commission will get under way,” Rivera said before suggesting that former treasurers of the PP would have to give evidence to the commission via video link from their cells — likely a reference to Francisco Granados, a top PP official in Madrid, who has given testimony through video conference from prison.

Rajoy responded with a biblical reference, saying it would be better to look to the future “because, if we look back to the past too much, we risk the same fate as Lot’s wife … who turned into a pillar of salt” when she looked back at Sodom.

Mariano Rajoy and Albert Rivera during negotiations to form government in August 2016 | Pierre-Philippe Marcou/AFP via Getty Images

The prime minister added that a commission looking into party financing could take place in the Senate — the upper house of parliament, where the PP does have an absolute majority — or expand its scope to take in other political parties.

Fractured alliance

The spat has seriously damaged the PP-Ciudadanos pact and reflects a bigger problem for the pair: they are partners but also competitors fighting over the same voters.

Rivera needs to prove to his supporters — many of them PP defectors — that his lawmakers are making a difference, while the conservative prime minister is trying to win back the confidence of his voter base and would prefer to work alongside the party’s traditional rival, the main opposition Socialists (PSOE). An added problem for Rivera is that his 32 MPs aren’t enough to form a majority with Rajoy, whereas the Socialists’ 85 are.

Pablo Simón, a politics professor at Carlos III University in Madrid, said this could be a crucial moment for Ciudadanos.

“It’s doubtful that they can survive in the middle and long term,” Simón said. He also indicated that the centrist party looks like “the weakest link of Spain’s new multi-party system,” with four political forces having meaningful representation in parliament (the other being the leftist Podemos).

However, Rivera is well aware that corruption has done a lot of harm to the PP in the past. Graft has been Spanish voters’ second biggest concern for years, after unemployment. And with good reason: in the past few months alone, the king’s brother-in-law Iñaki Urdangarín, former International Monetary Fund chief Rodrigo Rato and a number of senior PP officials have been sentenced to prison for economic crimes.

Rajoy also knows that any alliance between Ciudadanos, the Socialists and Podemos is likely to fall apart.

Rivera’s response to Rajoy has been to double down his bet.

He’s teamed up with the Socialists and Podemos to force through the committee into party financing — although it won’t be up and running for some months — and he’s given an ultimatum to Murcia’s president: either he resigns by March 27 and is replaced by a new conservative leader or Ciudadanos will try to force regional elections with the help of Podemos and the Socialists.

At the same time, however, both the PP and Ciudadanos are trying to calm things down. Sources in both parties said they will continue to cooperate on other issues, including the country’s budget. Rajoy told reporters before a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels on Thursday that he would prefer dialogue to fighting with Ciudadanos.

Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera visiting La Moncloa in Madrid | Pierre-Philippe Marcou/AFP via Getty Images

Rajoy also knows that any alliance between Ciudadanos, the Socialists and Podemos is likely to fall apart. The three parties have proven unable to agree on almost anything in the past and Rajoy has a trump card to play: he can call new elections at any time from May and shake up the political landscape once more.

The biggest danger for Rajoy probably comes from the Socialists, which have been rudderless since Pedro Sánchez resigned as leader last October. They’ll choose a new chief in May, which could be a game changer if whoever is picked takes a more aggressive line toward Rajoy.

“The real political term will start when the PSOE has a new head,” said politics professor Simón.