It was Trump's trip to the Middle East who started this whole strategy in his speech in Saudi Arabia:
"Create a military bloc that wages a war" against so-called Islamic State and at the same time, " challenge strongly growing regional influence" of Iran .
It is the speech ever more pronounced since the considered "deep state" US has managed to subdue an erratic president as few and that his campaign had promised that the US was not going to become more involved in overthrowing governments.
Therefore, there is nothing strange that añadiese:
"The government of that country [Iran] must continue until you have isolated a different regime."
If there was any hint of a new policy of the US in the Middle East this comment took him into the air as these words were uttered barely a week after that were held elections in Iran (elections there in Saudi Arabia, for example ) and in which he defeated incumbent President Rohani, and movement that supports it took the majority of seats in parliament.
Needless to say that Rohani has always been known for advocating an approach to the West, making comments like that of Trump closed roads and forced Iran to strengthen its alliance with Russia, with China and open up new avenues with other allies two former countries like Turkey.
With the latter, and only four days after that speech Trump, Iran signed an agreement to deepen bilateral cooperation, especially trade and banking sector which provides septuplicar the trade amount in six years, from 4,000 million dollars in today to 30,000 million for 2023 .
Nor Needless to say that speech sounded great on the ears Saudis, who quickly stepped up their anti-Shiite sectarian campaign understanding that had a free hand to it.
Trump's speech was not anything special since the election campaign and had said he had to ignore the agreement signed by his predecessor, Obama on Iran's nuclear program.
This is the only thing that has kept itself promised that in the months leading as president.
Since you can not face half the world (China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany , who were the other signatories of the agreement with Iran ) what he has done up to the new step in his visit to Saudi Arabia - has been continuing freezing Iranian funds is in US banks with the excuse that the missile tests carried out by Iran is authorized as one of its points stipulates sanctions will remain for five years in the case of weapons (until 2021) and for eight in the case of ballistic missiles (up to 2024).
Iran test weapon s, even if defensive, then sanctions are maintained and expanded, as has just made the US Congress on 15 June.
Trump chose the ideal place for this campaign:
in Riyadh and at a time when the Gulf countries are on the ropes both by his speech against terrorism so -called Islamic State as the defeat of their sponsored in Syria. Nor can you say that the US is triumphing in Syria, precisely.
Therefore, it was the right time for all dirigiesen attention to Iran and, above all, what is known as the "axis of resistance" against Israel (self Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and some other Palestinian organization ).
This needs to be explained.
Since a war against Iran is not possible today, and there is not much time for her because next year Iran will be a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (which are part of China and Russia , among other countries), you have to start with the weakest links in the "axis of resistance".
Syria has been the big goal , and here we must remember that since the beginning of the war in Syria, the "against" protected and funded by the West (with both weapons and money) always said that once ousted Bashar al-Assad , and within six months it was given, the "new Syria" would announce a break with Iran, with Hezbollah and normalize relations with Israel although this country has occupied a strip of Syrian land such as the Golan Heights , among others measures (1).
It has not been six months, but six years and the Syrian government is winning the war on all fronts political, economic and military so defeat sponsored by Gulf countries and US forces (with the exception of Kurds) has rotated the crosshairs towards non - state actors that are part of that axis:
Hezbollah and Hamas because they are considered the weakest links.
What was considered small parts not long ago (although this has to be qualified, and much, and if Hezbollah) pass now to be the most desirable.
Why Trump in Saudi Arabia included Hezbollah in his speech and a day later in Israel, did the same with Hamas . He called both organizations as "the greatest threats to fight" with Iran.
music to the ears Saudis and Israelis.
Who brand strategy who?
The question to ask is whether it is the US who is making a strategy or Saudi Arabia .
And the answer is not easy , but gives every impression that they are Saudis who rule the roost.
Especially if one considers that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates raised to Trump , during his visit to Riyadh , who were willing to normalize relations with Israel (with trade relations and permission for Israeli planes to overfly these Arab countries as a first step) in exchange for the resumption of talks with the Palestinians and maintaining the isolation and Iran .
It is not a new proposal, since they already raised something in his famous 2002 peace plan and were forced to return in 2006 just after Israel's defeat at the hands of Hezbollah.
This organization has passed at this time from hero to villain.
Hero by defeating Israel on two occasions -years 2000 and 2006, no government has failed Arab happened to villain for supporting the Syrian government in the war.
All Arab governments, which had cold sweats with the popularity of Hezbollah by defeating Israe l, unleashed a sectarian Shiite anti war -against this organization, above all that has so far been verbal but show they are willing to go for a final step: open warfare.
We have already taken interim steps such as the declaration of "terrorist organization" by most of the countries of the Gulf (but not Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Algeria, and other dubious as Tunisia and Egypt, although the latter has just joined the game Saudi breaking relations with Qatar ) and then the approval of sanctions to try to dry your financial resources.
Right now also the US is considering increasing sanctions on banks that welcome accounts of Hezbollah, thus threatening the Lebanese banking system for example, it is evident and would lead to a very difficult situation that can drag him all the country.
There are Arab intellectuals who hold this same thesis.
One of the highlights is Abdel Bari Atwan, the ousted editor of what was the most prestigious Arab media, Al-Quds Al-Arabi , which maintains that everything we're seeing , "is nothing more than a smokescreen designed to pave the way, or confer legitimacy on a different war:
Israel eliminate resistance in the region , and specifically the Lebanese Hizbulá movement "(2).
Atwan was ousted by maintaining that the Arab countries that had staked everything on the "against" Syrian (3) had not taken into account two things:
the resilience of the Syrian government, who supported an important part of the Sunnis, and their alliance with Russia .
That speech squeaked in media every day exuded sectarian hatred and dropped bill.
Trump's visit to Riyadh and everything in it and around it happened was intended to convey a clear message: Israel is not the enemy, but Shiism.
And above all, the "axis of resistance" and since with the clear victory of the Syrian government and the defeat of the "counter" has become openly the common enemy of Saudis and Israelis.
One of the justifications of Saudi Arabia for financial support and its sponsored militarily in Syria has been to "prevent the liberated areas falling under the control of Hezbollah, Iran or the regime" (4).
And there are hardly any areas under the control of "against" Syrian and which is maintained under the agreement reached between Russia, Iran and Turkey in talks Astana in late December last year (5).
And, of course, will not be permanent.
Therefore, strengthening the "axis of resistance" it is considered a direct threat to Saudi Arabia and Israel and so are making common cause.
Saudis and Israelis have acknowledged openly, especially Minister Zionist Defense by stating emphatically that in regard to Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas "we are [what he calls moderate Sunni countries (sic) and Israel] in the same boat " (6).
To not appear so in a clear way , that is, that Israel is not an enemy, Saudi Arabia prepared the ground thoroughly.
He invited 50 Arab and Muslim countries to Riyadh the same dates that Trump was visiting the country and managed to get all this was would cater to a document that has been considered the origin of "the Arab NATO" (actually "NATO Sunni ") and all it is nothing but a huge deception.
First, because several of the countries whose signature appeared disassociated from the first moment of it to be considered "deceived" by the Saudi prime minister since at any time of the invitation made them appear the possibility of developing any document and less threatening countries and organizations.
It is expressly said Algeria, Lebanon and Iraq.
Others, such as Senegal and Pakistan, did not use the word "hoax" but expressed dissatisfaction with the way everything had concocted.
Pakistan finally also decided to withdraw its signature.
Second, because although the document has been adopted by the other participants was stillborn and a few days later when one of the signatories, Qatar , was subjected to a blockade by several of those countries.
It is so faded, in less than a week, "NATO Sunni" if ever this idea was taken seriously.
And it is almost consubstantial with the Arab and Islamic world, where virtually all of its multilateral structures have resulted in failures and have been forgotten.
This is what has happened with the Joint Defense Pact of the Arab League , the Organization of Defense of the Middle East and the Gulf Cooperation Council itself.
All covenants and agreements made so far have been unsuccessful and the "Sunni NATO" or would be less.
The spark
The spark that has made blow up all this fantasy has been precisely the inclusion of Hamas in the list of "threats to combat" and, by extension, that of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in which this Palestinian organization integrates and that Qatar is one of its promoters and sponsors.
Attention to the language used, which is never innocent, by Qatar and has been what ultimately cost him the blockade and broken relationships:
"Qatar will not be labeled as a terrorist organization the Muslim Brotherhood because it poses no threat to the security of Qatar, it is a political opposition and are only prohibited from using our territory as a platform to attack their own country" (sic).
What's unusual about it, since it is the same, exactly the same language that you are using the West to maintain its support for the "against" Syria, for example? Nothing. The difference is that the role for the West one or another organization.
Kosovar mafia was considered a "liberation army" -the same as the "against" Syrian - for fighting the Serbs (and had to finish destroying what little remained of the former Yugoslavia ) while the Colombian FARC were regarded as a terrorist organization just because they threatened economic and political interests Westerners and Americans (like the FTAA, for example, that if he did not go ahead was among one of the main reasons why FARC) .
The same goes for Hezbollah (which has defeated Israel twice) or the Palestinian organizations that oppose the occupation of their land (sanctioned and supported by the very democratic West).
So once we heard clearly and categorically what the scales (and values) are about measuring all things Western and who are considered friends, allies or vassals.
However, that has not served him to Qatar for anything since immediately imposed the severance of diplomatic relations and economic blockade.
In these we are. And neither the forms and even the deadlines are kept. The offer made to Arab countries in Riyadh Trump has launched without Israel has taken a single step to restart negotiations with the Palestinians.
Saudi Arabia is already talking to Israel to establish trade relations.
A few years almost a few months ago, the Arabs still say they would like to, but that was Palestine unresolved stumbling block.
Now they do not want to know anything about anything Palestine and say openly.
Palestine is no longer for them not even a pain in the ass that prevents them sit comfortably alongside Israel. Palestine is for these Arabs, a story of the past.
All this acceleration has a clear reason, especially in the case of Saudi Arabia, and fear. Why he used deception to achieve your document against Iran and the "axis of resistance".
And that fear is increased with the addition of more than expected Iran to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It is the last, desperate attempt to undermine or defeat the "axis of resistance" because time is running out for the house and the rest Saud.
And it ends at the same speed as the war in Syria, which have lost and only the US prevent, for the moment, the feared Shiite corridor established from Tehran to Damascus develops (and, of course, Lebanon) since they have tried to make the Al-Tanf (southern Syria, on the border with Iraq) that prevented the plug.
Although it is proving to be a vain attempt, because the Syrian army has established direct control elsewhere on the border with Iraq that guarantees the corridor, it can not yet say that this obstructionist strategy has failed completely.
It is most likely, of course, and time is not in their favor but quite the opposite. Hence they have sought an escape forward with Qatar as an excuse.
The blockade against Qatar and lasts two weeks and is still not clear whether the emirate will return to the fold since although it maintains its support for the Muslim Brotherhood itself has expelled from its territory to Hamas leaders.
What it is increasingly clear it is that the Palestinians are much more alone each passing day. They are clearly the weakest of the "axis of resistance" and the easiest to defeat link.
Here's how to interpret everything that is happening in recent days, both the Saudi-Israeli rapprochement as reducing electricity supplies to the Gaza Strip by Israel but at the express request of the misnamed Palestinian Authority.
What Fatah and the Palestinian Authority called hope it is that the weakening of Hamas will translate into a return to long failed "reconciliation agreements" but they can now have a little more tour of the weakness of the Palestinian organization and strengthen Fatah.
That would result in the total triumph of Israel and at no cost. Since the normalization of relations with other Arab countries, especially the Gulf.
There is nothing strange that Israel was congratulated on all that is supporting tackles Saudi Arabia since it not only weakens Hamas and "legitimizes terrorism", but understands that there is something much more important: "About yet more to Saudi Arabia and Egypt to Israel ", which is" reinforces Israel's policy in general and government in particular "(7) and at a time when the Palestinians have tried, with little success, to remind the Arab countries that have 50 years under military occupation.
A different case is Hezbollah since not only has its indisputable desire for strength and iron organization, but thanks to the war in Syria has improved its combat capability and achieved that a country like Russia has signed several agreements with the movement politico-military (8), who of course does not consider a "terrorist organization" and has threatened to use its veto in the Security Council of the UN on the two occasions when Saudi Arabia via Jordan, presented the proposal.
Hezbollah is now the great pitfall of this strategy throughout the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel against the "axis of resistance". You can succeed with regard to Palestine, but the rest will fail without any doubt.
notes:
(1) Alberto Cruz, "Syria: opposition frustrated, external interference and impact on the region , " http://lahaine.org/dC3Y
(2) Abdel Bari Atwan, "Preparing for war against Hezbollah , " http://www.raialyoum.com/?p=677223
(3) I use the term "against" Syria similarity to the situation that occurred in Nicaragua after the victory of the Sandinista Front.
The term "against" was used to refer to different groups who opposed the FSLN government and receiving support from outside the country, especially the US, and those who financed salaries and whom military equipment was supplied with the express aim of overthrowing the Sandinista government.
(5) Alberto Cruz, " The impact of the release of Aleppo internally, the Middle East and beyond , " http://lahaine.org/fD6a
(7) http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Five-reasons-why-Israel-should-care-about-the-Qatar-crisis-494891 (8) http://elterritoriodellince.blogspot.com .com / 2016/11 / the-second-match-the-first-acuerdo.html
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