Ukraine, Brexit, Kosovo, Catalonia ... Try USA Balkanization of Europe?

Catalonia and more than 40 cities in Spain are made since last week demonstrations in support of the referendum 1-O. Photo: Reuters

Are you trying to USA Balkanization of Europe?

• By  Germán Gorraiz ,  diario-octubre.com
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The Brexit and the triumph of Trump staged the settlement of the "teleological scenario" in which the purpose of the creative processes were planned by finite models that could intermodelar or simulate various alternative futures and in which prevailed the intention, purpose and foresight and replacing the "teleonomic scenario", marked by extreme doses of volatility that affect especially old Europe. 

Thus, Europe would suffer an acute identity crisis compounded by the triumph of Brexit and the "process of European Balkanization" devised by the US for by attacks targeted terrorists, the refugee crisis and the awakening of independence desire of European Stateless , cause the appearance of centrifugal forces accelerate the dismemberment of the current European Union and would like paradigm immediate unilateral declaration of independence of Catalonia. 

Britain out of the European Union (Brexit) 

In the UK converged greater exposure to toxic assets (subprime), to real estate assets and revalued pound had stalled exports, so the Bank of England was forced to make successive reductions in interest rates, implement quantitative measures (quantitative Easing) to increase the monetary base and repeatedly depreciate its currency to boost exports. 

However, after returning to power the Conservatives led by David Cameron and faithful to his Eurosceptic policy (no British willingness to embark on a project in decline in which British sovereignty would be subject to the mandates of Brussels), they included in its election manifesto of 2,015 the call for a referendum on leaving the EU for 2016, which Cameron reassured the more radical base of his party while he snatched the flag to match rising-Eurosceptics (UKIP) in the belief in a comfortable victory and the continuation of United Kingdom in the European Union in conditions similar to Switzerland. 

However, the emergence of centrifugal forces led by the former mayor of London, Boris Johnson got the unexpected victory of supporters of Brexit who believe that the UK does not need Europe because it could become the Singapore of the West from his vantage point City of London financial while overseas trade metropolis to pilot the flagship of Commonwealt reborn, following the philosophy of Winston Churchill: 

"We are in Europe, but not in it," so after the triumph of Brexit, we could see the rebirth of Commonwealt and a new Falklands conflict.

Greek khaos 

Peter Morici, an economist and professor at the University of Maryland, said on Fox News that "the need for a fiscal union in the euro zone and the ECB adopts a similar to that carried out by the US Federal Reserve paper, They will not arrive in time to save the peripheral countries and considered that "these countries to abandon the euro and print its own money and solve their problems as did the United States following the financial crisis." 

In the Greek case, the troika comprising the EU, the IMF and the ECB have long pushed to Greece with a rigorous privatization program because of its exorbitant public debt and forced to implement structural and fiscal reforms to modernize public administration and health, improve the labor market and adapt the tax burden to the circumstances (lower VAT situated at present 23%) have resulted in higher taxes, reduced staff, suppression of public bodies, cuts in wages and pensions retirement, flexibility in the labor market and brutal loss of jobs (more than one million since the beginning of the crisis). 

In addition, it is estimated that the public debt of the Hellenic country will amount to 200% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017, and there are fears that could pass the default (default on their payments) to exit the Eurozone (drastic measure which would have the blessings of his main creditor, Germany), so "increasingly European and US companies are prepared for what was previously unthinkable," according to the New York Times. 

¿Settlement to the current European Union? 

The hypothetical exclusion of Greece from the eurozone would mean the settlement of the Eurozone as other peripheral countries (Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Malta and Cyprus), inexorably follow the centrifugal movement of Greece and must return to their national currencies suffer subsequent depreciation thereof and regression to levels typical of the 70's income, with the consequent devastating effect on stock markets. 

So, we will see the conversion of the current Eurozone in the Europe of Seven (Germany, France, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Luxembourg and Austria), leaving the other peripheral European countries (Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Slovenia, Malta and Cyprus), gravitating in their orbital rings and being forced to return to their national currencies suffer subsequent depreciation thereof, regression to levels of own income of the 70s and beginning of the exodus to rural areas a population urban affected by economic strangulation, housing and income embargo on the unemployment rolls, resulting in extensive rural revitalization and rejuvenation of its population. 

In addition, the decline in exports because of the contraction in domestic consumption of the EU by the economic recession (trade between Member States of the EU reach 60% of the total volume of trade) and successive devaluations of currencies China and emerging countries more expensive European products and reduces their competitiveness against countries around the world, (with special emphasis on traditional exporting countries such as Finland) which could cause the country to leave the Eurozone and proceed to the establishment of a Scandinavian Federation (made by Norway, Finland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania) that pivotaría in the Russian-European trade ambivalence. 

The other countries of central and eastern Europe (members of the Europe called emerging), suffer particularly harsh effects of the economic storm by not having the protective umbrella of the euro and will be forced to turn to depreciate their currencies, increasing dramatically its external debts and suffer alarming liquidity problems and also should return to autarkic economies after suffering massive internal migration, to dismiss the EC to amend the rules for adopting the euro in the European Union and thus to accelerate the accession of the members from central and eastern Europe and should proceed to the reopening of abandoned coal mines and obsolete nuclear power stations to shake off the energy rusodependencia states. 

Towards total balkanization of Europe? 

Centrifugal forces in the European theater would have caused the rise of independence movements Scotland which would paradigm of this movement and pupil after the referendum held to decide on the permanence or not of that nation in Britain. 

Professor James Mitchell, head of the School of Government and Public Policy at the University of Strathclyde (Glasgow, Scotland), explains that the reasons for people to want independence "lie in the failure of their States, as the substate nations they feel ninguneadas ".but according to the current prevailing doctrine in Brussels," a state resulting from a secessionist movement would lose its status as a full member of the euro zone and would begin the process of readmission ", which in practice makes it impossible secession. 

However , after the Brexit  , we will see a gradual dissolution of the current EU as a political entity, when it will be used by the current state sub-European nations ( Scotland, Flanders, Brittany, Alsace, Corsica, Catalonia, Basque Country, Galicia, Padania, South Tyrol, Northern Ireland, Cornwall and the Isle of Man ) to get off and lead to the emergence of a new geopolitical map of Europe on the horizon 2,020, which would have achieved the goal of US balkanization Europe Old Europe turn into a mere vassal. 

GERMÁN GORRAIZ LOPEZ-Analyst